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But it also requires investment at exactly the time shareholders are demanding better returns. Flutter’s recent results illustrate the tension. US adjusted EBITDA fell sharply in the first half of 2026, while the company continues to invest in FanDuel Predicts and other initiatives aimed at future growth.
But in the UK Entain’s share price weakness is less about prediction markets and more about tax, debt and confidence.
The company reported approximately £3.6 billion of net debt at the end of June, with reported leverage of 3.1x underlying EBITDA. Online underlying EBITDA fell 5% in the first half despite 7% growth in online net gaming revenue. The tax impact has been substantial.
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That management also involves balancing margin and longevity. Wilson notes that Jackpot engines need to balance commercial performance with a sustainable and enjoyable player experience. Operators need enough control to manage contribution levels, drop mechanics and reward frequency, while ensuring the product remains engaging and fair for players over time.
“How do you balance that against not draining too much of the players’ funds and making sure that it has the stickiness, and that we’re not pushing players away, but encouraging them to come back?” he asks. “That really is the science.”
For Splash Tech, optimisation means protecting a safe and enjoyable experience while giving operators the opportunity to increase gross gaming revenue. “Getting that balance right is why we exist, really,” Wilson says.
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Japan’s ability to lure back the world’s biggest casino developers will hinge on the regulatory framework the government unveils later this year, says Klebanow.
If it strikes a more reasonable balance that encourages economic development, “you will see the world’s best casino operators submit proposals”, he says. The government, he adds, must show it is prepared to give developers enough room to manage the risks of committing billions of dollars in capital.
Klebanow remains cautious about the commercial prospects of Japan’s emerging IR market, particularly given the tight limits on gaming capacity. With only five casinos ultimately envisaged, he argues that the number of gaming machines and tables will be modest relative to Japan’s population, making it “very safe to assume” that gambling will be socially and physically contained.
