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Supporters of the change argued that people aged 18 to 20 are already treated as adults in many areas of civic and economic life, and that retaining a separate gambling threshold of 21 could push some towards unlicensed sites.
During the committee stage debate, Labour and Home Affairs Minister Major General Pius Mokgware warned parliament against adopting rules that could not be enforced in practice.
“Do not have legislations which you cannot enforce, it is dangerous,” Mokgware told parliament.
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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
About Wild North
Last year, the DRC’s Minister of Finance Doudou Fwamba estimated iGaming operators generated around $1.7 billion in annual revenue, yet contributed approximately $1 million in taxes.
A CEO of a prominent operator in the DRC last year told iGB the tax system largely operates on a declaration basis of how much operators report to the government.
“Operators do pay, yes, but they pay whatever suits them,” they said. “In other words, we effectively pay what benefits us. All the while, the state has no means of monitoring its regulatory policies.”